Chile

39.3 Late Summer #168 of 217 · CHL · Latin America & Caribbean · High income · Data: 7/7

What's Driving the Score

Base CCI (7 indicators weighted) 33.7

Hidden extraction (shadow economy, employer burden) +3.3

Resource masking (depletable resource dependency) +1.6

Development adj (spending below expected for income level) +0.7

Total CCI 39.3

Development Context

GDP per capita: $16,710

Actual spending: 24.6% GDP

Expected (Wagner): 31.1% GDP

Gap: 6.5% below expected

Indicator Breakdown

Each indicator is normalized to 0-100. Higher = more late-cycle pressure. The composite CCI is a weighted average plus adjustments.

Spending

24.6% GDP 29.2 2023

Debt

42.7% GDP 21.4 2024

Growth

2.5% 50.0 2024

Migration

2.95/1000 42.6 2024

Governance

0.89 32.3 2024

Fiscal Pressure

5.2% of revenue 10.4 2024

Demographic

Fert: 1.14 | Dep: 20.5% 54.4 2024

Spending (18% weight) - Total general government expenditure as % of GDP. Source: IMF WEO. Range: 10% (lean) to 60% (heavy state). Higher spending = further in the cycle.

Debt (14%) - Gross government debt as % of GDP. Source: IMF WEO. Range: 0-200%. Debt accumulation is how states finance extraction beyond revenue.

Growth (15%) - Average real GDP per capita growth over 5 years. Source: IMF WEO / World Bank. Inverted: low or negative growth signals extraction is suffocating the productive economy.

Migration (10%) - Net migration rate per 1000 population. Source: UN Population Division via World Bank. Inverted: people leaving is the most honest indicator - they vote with their feet.

Governance (18%) - Composite of control of corruption, government effectiveness, rule of law, and regulatory quality. Source: World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators. Inverted: poor governance = extraction without accountability.

Fiscal Pressure (13%) - Interest payments as % of government revenue. Source: World Bank WDI. When interest consumes revenue, the state must tax more, borrow more, or print - the death spiral mechanism.

Demographic (12%) - Composite of fertility rate (below replacement = future worker shortage) and old-age dependency ratio (more retirees per worker = more fiscal pressure). Trajectory signal - affects the cycle in 20-30 years.

Hidden Extraction

Shadow Economy 13.2% GDP

Social Contributions 5.4% rev

Self-Employment 23.9%

Spending-Revenue Gap 6.4% GDP

Total Hidden Adjustment +3.3 pts

Official spending data understates real extraction. These proxies estimate what's hidden:

Shadow Economy - % of GDP operating outside formal taxation. Source: IMF WP 18/17 (Medina-Schneider). Brazil at 35% means a third of the economy is escaping formal taxation - but citizens still pay through embedded costs.

Social Contributions - Employer payroll burden as % of government revenue. Hidden from workers' payslips. A 22% figure means significant extraction happens before workers see their salary.

Self-Employment - High rates signal people fleeing formal employment because the extraction burden makes it unprofitable. Informal/self-employed workers still pay consumption taxes.

Spending-Revenue Gap - Difference between what the state spends and what it collects as formal tax. The gap is funded by hidden channels: forced savings (e.g. FGTS in Brazil), state enterprises, parastatal organizations, or money printing.

Resource Revenue +1.6 pts masking adjustment

Minerals 16.2% GDP (long-runway)

Non-resource 83.1% GDP

Depletable resources (oil, gas, coal) mask the real CCI by funding the state without citizen taxation. When the resource depletes or demand shifts, the state must suddenly extract from citizens. This country's CCI is adjusted +1.6 points to account for this masking effect.

CCI Trajectory (2000-2026) +10.5 pts over 26 years

Historical CCI computed from available indicators per year (spending, growth, governance, fiscal pressure, demographics). Not all 7 indicators are available for every year - early data points use fewer indicators. The trend direction matters more than absolute values.

Nearest Countries by CCI Score

#	Country	CCI	Season	Delta	Data
169	Vanuatu	39.2	Late Summer	-0.1	7/7
170	Antigua and Barbuda	39.2	Late Summer	-0.1	5/7
166	Greenland	39.4	Late Summer	+0.1	4/7
167	Morocco	39.4	Late Summer	+0.1	7/7
165	Uzbekistan	39.5	Late Summer	+0.2	7/7