Conflict Risk Matrix

CCI patterns that precede conflict - applied to 70 geopolitical rivalries

70 rivalry pairs | 61 countries on watchlist | Backtest: 58% detection at 58+ threshold | 24 historical crises tested

How this works

The CCI measures structural fiscal/governance decay. Backtesting against 24 historical crises shows countries above CCI 58 two years before an event were detected 58% of the time. Two distinct conflict patterns emerge from the data: stressed countries lash out at neighbors, and strong countries target structurally weakened adversaries.

Pattern 1: Strong vs Weak

Low-CCI power with a high-CCI adversary. The strong power exploits structural weakness - every US military intervention in the dataset targeted a country with CCI above 55.

Rule: attacker < 50, target > 55

Pattern 2: Stressed Lashes Out

Domestically stressed country with an accessible target. Internal decay drives external aggression - Azerbaijan (76), Saudi Arabia (72), Russia (65) all fit this before attacking.

Rule: CCI ≥ 58, rising trend, with rival

Pattern 3: Both Stressed

Neither side can win decisively. Expect prolonged, grinding conflict with no resolution. Russia-Ukraine (combined CCI 130) is the archetype.

Rule: both sides > 55

Pattern 4: Hidden Stress

Raw CCI significantly exceeds adjusted CCI. The model sees stress that historical adjustments dampen. These are surprise candidates - Lebanon (+13 gap) was already in the 2026 war.

Rule: full CCI - locked CCI > 8

The CCI does not predict specific events or timelines. It detects structural vulnerability and pattern matches against historical precedent. Military/political shocks (coups, terrorist attacks) in low-CCI countries are blind spots. The model sees the dry kindling, not the match.

Current Watchlist

Countries in the danger zone as of latest CCI data (2024-2025). Signal level based on CCI threshold, trend, and hidden stress.

Country	CCI	Full	Hidden	3yr Trend	Season	Signal
Myanmar	71.0	65.5	-5.5	+11.8	Late Autumn	CRITICAL - RISING
Cuba	67.3	68.3	+1.0	+5.9	Late Autumn	CRITICAL - RISING
Syrian Arab Republic	71.5	66.1	-5.4	-0.9	Late Autumn	CRITICAL - SUSTAINED
Afghanistan	66.8	65.0	-1.8	-8.7	Late Autumn	CRITICAL - SUSTAINED
Ukraine	65.3	65.9	+0.6	-11.9	Late Autumn	CRITICAL - SUSTAINED
Russian Federation	64.9	59.6	-5.3	-4.9	Mid Autumn	WARNING - ELEVATED
Venezuela, RB	62.7	70.7	+8.0	+5.3	Late Autumn	WARNING - RISING
Azerbaijan	61.9	59.2	-2.7	+0.8	Mid Autumn	WARNING - ELEVATED
China	61.3	58.4	-2.9	-6.2	Mid Autumn	WARNING - ELEVATED
Kuwait	61.0	58.2	-2.8	+7.4	Mid Autumn	WARNING - RISING
Turkmenistan	61.0	55.4	-5.6	+3.3	Mid Autumn	WARNING - RISING
Bolivia	59.8	57.8	-2.0	+4.1	Mid Autumn	WARNING - RISING
Serbia	59.5	52.9	-6.6	+3.1	Mid Autumn	WARNING - RISING
Somalia, Fed. Rep.	58.2	50.1	-8.1	-6.1	Mid Autumn	WARNING - ELEVATED
Lao PDR	57.7	56.7	-1.0	-12.2	Mid Autumn	WATCH - ELEVATED
West Bank and Gaza	57.6	57.6	0.0	+12.1	Mid Autumn	WATCH - ACCELERATING
Cameroon	57.4	49.4	-8.0	-3.8	Early Autumn	WATCH - ELEVATED
Belarus	56.9	58.8	+1.9	-6.3	Mid Autumn	WATCH - ELEVATED
Puerto Rico (US)	56.7	45.4	-11.3	+8.8	Early Autumn	WATCH - ACCELERATING
Mozambique	56.5	56.6	+0.1	0.0	Mid Autumn	WATCH - ELEVATED
Turkiye	56.2	52.3	-3.9	-2.0	Mid Autumn	WATCH - ELEVATED
El Salvador	55.8	57.4	+1.6	+0.5	Mid Autumn	WATCH - ELEVATED
Haiti	55.7	61.8	+6.1	-6.2	Late Autumn	WATCH - ELEVATED
Algeria	55.7	60.5	+4.8	-0.5	Late Autumn	WATCH - ELEVATED
Ecuador	55.7	55.4	-0.3	+1.5	Mid Autumn	WATCH - ELEVATED
Mexico	55.4	56.2	+0.8	+2.8	Mid Autumn	WATCH - ELEVATED
Iraq	55.4	54.5	-0.9	+7.5	Mid Autumn	WATCH - ACCELERATING
Tunisia	55.3	53.4	-1.9	-3.4	Mid Autumn	WATCH - ELEVATED
Greece	54.6	65.1	+10.5	+5.9	Late Autumn	HIDDEN STRESS
Yemen, Rep.	53.5	63.9	+10.4	+5.2	Late Autumn	HIDDEN STRESS
Bahrain	53.0	64.0	+11.0	+1.3	Late Autumn	HIDDEN STRESS
Congo, Rep.	50.8	61.9	+11.1	-7.5	Late Autumn	HIDDEN STRESS
Sri Lanka	50.1	63.3	+13.2	-21.1	Late Autumn	HIDDEN STRESS
Brazil	49.4	58.1	+8.7	-7.5	Mid Autumn	HIDDEN STRESS
Angola	49.1	63.1	+14.0	-1.8	Late Autumn	HIDDEN STRESS
Bangladesh	46.4	54.8	+8.4	-5.5	Mid Autumn	HIDDEN STRESS
South Sudan	45.4	54.6	+9.2	0.0	Mid Autumn	HIDDEN STRESS
Libya	44.9	54.8	+9.9	-25.7	Mid Autumn	HIDDEN STRESS
Sudan	44.1	63.3	+19.2	-18.2	Late Autumn	HIDDEN STRESS
Nigeria	43.5	52.8	+9.3	-9.5	Mid Autumn	HIDDEN STRESS
France	43.5	52.6	+9.1	-5.5	Mid Autumn	HIDDEN STRESS
United States	43.3	52.9	+9.6	+2.4	Mid Autumn	HIDDEN STRESS
Slovak Republic	43.3	51.8	+8.5	-0.7	Mid Autumn	HIDDEN STRESS
San Marino	42.9	50.9	+8.0	+3.6	Mid Autumn	WATCH - ELEVATED
Lebanon	42.6	55.8	+13.2	-13.5	Mid Autumn	HIDDEN STRESS
Zambia	41.4	50.8	+9.4	-3.8	Mid Autumn	HIDDEN STRESS
Timor-Leste	40.6	54.7	+14.1	-19.8	Mid Autumn	HIDDEN STRESS
Kazakhstan	40.1	49.7	+9.6	-6.5	Early Autumn	HIDDEN STRESS
Papua New Guinea	39.3	49.3	+10.0	-5.9	Early Autumn	HIDDEN STRESS
Niger	39.3	48.5	+9.2	+3.3	Early Autumn	HIDDEN STRESS
Ethiopia	39.0	49.0	+10.0	-11.8	Early Autumn	HIDDEN STRESS
Mongolia	38.4	46.8	+8.4	-2.2	Early Autumn	HIDDEN STRESS
Singapore	37.5	47.1	+9.6	-2.1	Early Autumn	HIDDEN STRESS
Nauru	37.4	47.0	+9.6	+0.4	Early Autumn	HIDDEN STRESS
Palau	36.1	47.0	+10.9	-5.3	Early Autumn	HIDDEN STRESS
Guatemala	35.4	44.0	+8.6	-14.9	Early Autumn	HIDDEN STRESS
Czechia	34.2	43.6	+9.4	-8.7	Early Autumn	HIDDEN STRESS
Cabo Verde	33.4	45.4	+12.0	+5.9	Early Autumn	HIDDEN STRESS
Guyana	32.6	47.5	+14.9	-4.5	Early Autumn	HIDDEN STRESS
Costa Rica	28.9	37.8	+8.9	-8.1	Late Summer	HIDDEN STRESS
Ireland	20.4	28.6	+8.2	-5.7	Mid Summer	HIDDEN STRESS

Strong vs Weak

Low-CCI powers with structurally weakened adversaries. Sorted by CCI gap - larger gap = greater asymmetry.

Strong	CCI	Weak	CCI	Gap	Relationship
Bangladesh	46.4	Myanmar	71.0	24.6	Rohingya / border
Guyana	32.6	Venezuela, RB	62.7	30.1	Essequibo dispute
United States	43.3	Cuba	67.3	24.0	regime change target
United States	43.3	Venezuela, RB	62.7	19.4	regime change
United States	43.3	Russian Federation	64.9	21.6	strategic rivalry
Kosovo	30.7	Serbia	59.5	28.8	Kosovo dispute
Israel	40.2	Syrian Arab Republic	71.5	31.3	Golan / buffer zone
Colombia	45.3	Venezuela, RB	62.7	17.4	border / armed groups
Ethiopia	39.0	Somalia, Fed. Rep.	58.2	19.2	regional / Al-Shabaab
Ethiopia	39.0	Somalia, Fed. Rep.	58.2	19.2	port access / territory
United States	43.3	China	61.3	18.0	strategic rivalry
Norway	34.7	Russian Federation	64.9	30.2	Arctic / NATO frontier
Lithuania	37.8	Russian Federation	64.9	27.1	NATO frontier
Nigeria	43.5	Cameroon	57.4	13.9	border tensions
Korea, Rep.	35.0	China	61.3	26.3	regional tension
Estonia	41.0	Russian Federation	64.9	23.9	NATO frontier
Armenia	42.0	Azerbaijan	61.9	19.9	territorial
Latvia	44.4	Russian Federation	64.9	20.5	NATO frontier
Malaysia	40.1	China	61.3	21.2	South China Sea
Georgia	45.2	Russian Federation	64.9	19.7	territorial / frozen
Romania	46.1	Russian Federation	64.9	18.8	NATO frontier
Poland	47.1	Russian Federation	64.9	17.8	NATO frontier
Pakistan	49.6	Afghanistan	66.8	17.2	border / Taliban
Finland	47.4	Russian Federation	64.9	17.5	NATO frontier
Cyprus	36.5	Turkiye	56.2	19.7	occupation / frozen

Stressed Lashes Out

High-CCI countries with rising trend and an accessible target. Internal stress driving external risk.

Stressed	CCI	Trend	Target	CCI	Relationship
Myanmar	71.0	+11.8	Bangladesh	46.4	Rohingya / border
Venezuela, RB	62.7	+5.3	Guyana	32.6	Essequibo dispute
Cuba	67.3	+5.9	United States	43.3	regime change target
Myanmar	71.0	+11.8	Thailand	51.3	border / refugees
Venezuela, RB	62.7	+5.3	United States	43.3	regime change
Myanmar	71.0	+11.8	China	61.3	border / ethnic armies
Serbia	59.5	+3.1	Kosovo	30.7	Kosovo dispute
Venezuela, RB	62.7	+5.3	Colombia	45.3	border / armed groups
Azerbaijan	61.9	+0.8	Armenia	42.0	territorial

Both Stressed

Both sides above CCI 55. Neither can win - expect grinding, prolonged conflict.

Country A	CCI	Country B	CCI	Combined	Relationship
Myanmar	71.0	China	61.3	132	border / ethnic armies
Turkiye	56.2	Syrian Arab Republic	71.5	128	border / Kurdish
Belarus	56.9	Ukraine	65.3	122	staging ground
Iraq	55.4	Turkiye	56.2	112	Kurdish / border ops
Russian Federation	64.9	Ukraine	65.3	130	active war

Hidden Stress

Raw CCI exceeds adjusted CCI by 8+ points. Stress that historical adjustments mask - where surprises come from.

44 / 63 +19

33 / 48 +15

43 / 56 +13

55 / 65 +11

54 / 64 +10

39 / 49 +10

45 / 55 +10

43 / 53 +10

44 / 53 +9

45 / 55 +9

39 / 49 +9

46 / 55 +8

Grey bar = adjusted CCI (locked). Purple bar = raw CCI (full model). Gap = hidden stress not reflected in headline score.

Historical Backtest

Could the CCI have warned about past crises? For each known event, we check the CCI reading two years before (accounting for ~2 year data publication lag).

Crises tested

12%

Hit rate at 65+

58%

Hit rate at 58+

42%

Missed (below 58)

Internal Crises

Country	Year	CCI t-2	CCI t-1	CCI t	Verdict	Event
Ukraine	2022	70.1	60.4	77.2	65+ WARNING	Russia invades Ukraine
Ukraine	2014	64.8	65.3	70.3	58+ ELEVATED	Crimea annexation / Donbas war
Myanmar	2021	51.6	63.9	71.5	MISSED	Military coup
Sri Lanka	2022	71.1	62.0	71.2	65+ WARNING	Economic collapse / govt overthrow
Cuba	2023	62.7	61.4	68.3	58+ ELEVATED	Mass emigration / economic collapse
Haiti	2024	61.9	64.1	66.1	58+ ELEVATED	Gang takeover / govt collapse
Bolivia	2024	55.7	58.6	64.9	MISSED	Coup attempt
Russian Federation	2022	64.7	64.7	69.8	58+ ELEVATED	Invades Ukraine (self-inflicted)
Greece	2010	54.0	60.3	61.2	MISSED	Sovereign debt crisis
Greece	2015	61.1	51.1	52.5	58+ ELEVATED	Bailout referendum / capital controls
Venezuela, RB	2017	66.3	65.9	67.0	65+ WARNING	Constitutional crisis / hyperinflation
Syrian Arab Republic	2011	55.5	57.9	66.4	MISSED	Civil war begins
Argentina	2018	55.7	49.0	60.3	MISSED	Currency crisis / IMF bailout
Argentina	2023	39.5	43.6	52.9	MISSED	Milei elected (crisis response)
Lebanon	2020	64.2	69.3	59.5	58+ ELEVATED	Financial collapse
Egypt, Arab Rep.	2011	58.6	58.2	66.4	58+ ELEVATED	Arab Spring / Mubarak ousted
Turkiye	2018	58.3	58.9	65.6	58+ ELEVATED	Currency crisis / lira crash
Brazil	2015	49.1	53.8	62.0	MISSED	Dilma impeachment / recession
South Africa	2021	42.5	49.5	39.1	MISSED	July riots / unrest
West Bank and Gaza	2023	41.7	45.5	57.1	MISSED	Oct 7 / Gaza war
Iran, Islamic Rep.	2022	63.1	66.0	58.7	58+ ELEVATED	Mahsa Amini protests
Sudan	2023	64.9	62.3	62.5	58+ ELEVATED	Civil war begins
Ethiopia	2020	45.9	43.9	46.2	MISSED	Tigray war begins
Nigeria	2023	58.7	53.0	54.0	58+ ELEVATED	Naira crisis / cash shortage

Cross-Border Attacks

Attacker	CCI t-2	Victim	CCI t-2	Gap	Pattern	Event
Russian Federation	64.7	Ukraine	70.1	-5	STRESSED OUT	Russia invades Ukraine
Russian Federation	56.3	Ukraine	64.8	-9	OTHER	Russia annexes Crimea
Israel	33.7	West Bank and Gaza	41.7	-8	BOTH LOW	Israel-Gaza war
West Bank and Gaza	41.7	Israel	33.7	8	BOTH LOW	Hamas attacks Israel (Oct 7)
Saudi Arabia	71.7	Yemen, Rep.	58.4	13	STRESSED OUT	Saudi intervenes in Yemen
Azerbaijan	76.2	Armenia	41.9	34	STRESSED OUT	Azerbaijan attacks Nagorno-Karabakh
Azerbaijan	69.4	Armenia	40.5	29	STRESSED OUT	Azerbaijan retakes Nagorno-Karabakh
Turkiye	58.9	Syrian Arab Republic	70.1	-11	STRESSED OUT	Turkey invades NE Syria
United States	43.3	Venezuela, RB	62.0	-19	STRONG-WEAK	US captures Maduro
Israel	37.6	Iran, Islamic Rep.	58.7	-21	STRONG-WEAK	Israel strikes Iran
United States	43.3	Iran, Islamic Rep.	59.4	-16	STRONG-WEAK	US-Israel strikes Iran
United States	41.6	Iraq	74.9	-33	STRONG-WEAK	US invades Iraq
United States	48.0	Libya	79.5	-32	STRONG-WEAK	NATO intervention in Libya
United States	40.0	Syrian Arab Republic	76.5	-37	STRONG-WEAK	US airstrikes in Syria

What the model misses: Military coups in low-CCI countries (Myanmar 2021 at 51.6), terrorist attacks (Oct 7 at 41.7), falsified data (Greece pre-2010), localized unrest (South Africa 2021 at 42.5). The CCI detects slow-burn fiscal/demographic decay, not external shocks or political decisions. The 42% miss rate is real and honest.

IMF Projected CCI (2026-2028)

CCI re-computed using IMF WEO forecasts for GDP growth (13% weight) and debt/GDP (12% weight). All other indicators carried forward at last known value. This narrows the 2-year data lag to show where the model expects each country to move IF IMF projections hold.

111

Deteriorating

Worsening

Stable

Easing

Improving

Threshold Crossings

Countries projected to cross the 58 (warning) or 65 (critical) threshold by 2026.

Country	Current CCI	Projected 2026	Delta	Crossing
Venezuela, RB	62.7	74.8	+12.1	ENTERING CRITICAL
Greece	54.6	64.8	+10.2	ENTERING WARNING
Bahrain	53.0	63.9	+10.9	ENTERING WARNING
Yemen, Rep.	53.5	62.2	+8.7	ENTERING WARNING
Sri Lanka	50.1	63.3	+13.2	ENTERING WARNING
Angola	49.1	63.2	+14.1	ENTERING WARNING
Italy	54.4	61.8	+7.4	ENTERING WARNING
Congo, Rep.	50.8	61.6	+10.8	ENTERING WARNING
Haiti	55.7	59.7	+4.0	ENTERING WARNING
Algeria	55.7	61.6	+5.9	ENTERING WARNING
Iran, Islamic Rep.	54.4	59.8	+5.4	ENTERING WARNING
Egypt, Arab Rep.	54.7	59.6	+4.9	ENTERING WARNING
Belarus	56.9	59.5	+2.6	ENTERING WARNING
Japan	52.1	58.9	+6.8	ENTERING WARNING
Kuwait	61.0	57.1	-3.9	LEAVING WARNING
Brazil	49.4	58.8	+9.4	ENTERING WARNING
Bolivia	59.8	57.8	-2.0	LEAVING WARNING
Turkmenistan	61.0	55.4	-5.6	LEAVING WARNING
Libya	44.9	63.3	+18.4	ENTERING WARNING
Serbia	59.5	51.9	-7.6	LEAVING WARNING
Somalia, Fed. Rep.	58.2	49.8	-8.4	LEAVING WARNING

Projected Deterioration (top 15)

Country	Current	Proj. 2026	Delta
Libya	44.9	63.3	+18.4
Guyana	32.6	47.6	+15.0
Timor-Leste	40.6	55.2	+14.6
Angola	49.1	63.2	+14.1
Kosovo	30.7	44.1	+13.4
Sri Lanka	50.1	63.3	+13.2
Lebanon	42.6	55.8	+13.2
Venezuela, RB	62.7	74.8	+12.1
Sudan	44.1	56.2	+12.1
Cabo Verde	33.4	45.4	+12.0
Palau	36.1	47.8	+11.7
Guam	29.3	40.7	+11.4
American Samoa	28.0	39.3	+11.3
Papua New Guinea	39.3	50.4	+11.1
Bahrain	53.0	63.9	+10.9

Projected Improvement (top 15)

Country	Current	Proj. 2026	Delta
Myanmar	71.0	60.6	-10.4
Puerto Rico (US)	56.7	46.3	-10.4
Somalia, Fed. Rep.	58.2	49.8	-8.4
Cameroon	57.4	49.1	-8.3
Serbia	59.5	51.9	-7.6
Micronesia, Fed. Sts.	52.1	45.2	-6.9
Eswatini	52.2	45.4	-6.8
United Arab Emirates	49.3	43.3	-6.0
Turkmenistan	61.0	55.4	-5.6
Russian Federation	64.9	59.4	-5.5
Syrian Arab Republic	71.5	66.1	-5.4
Liechtenstein	30.8	25.7	-5.1
Solomon Islands	44.2	39.4	-4.8
Hong Kong SAR, China	52.5	47.8	-4.7
Tajikistan	49.2	44.8	-4.4

Important: Only 25% of CCI weight changes in projections (growth + debt). The other 75% (governance, demographics, migration, spending, fiscal pressure) is frozen at last known values. A country's actual CCI will diverge from projection if governance deteriorates, migration spikes, or demographics shift. IMF forecasts themselves have error margins - these projections compound that uncertainty.

How to read this

The CCI is a thermometer, not a crystal ball. It measures structural temperature - not when things break.

By audience

Choosing where to live or hold assets

Check the CCI trajectory on the country page - not just today's number, but the direction. A country at CCI 40 and rising +8 over 3 years is moving the wrong way. Check hidden stress - a country that looks stable (locked CCI 45) but has raw CCI 55 is not as safe as it appears. Late Autumn countries are poor choices for long-term commitments regardless of quality of life today.

Pricing geopolitical risk

The hidden stress radar shows mispriced risk - countries where headline data looks calm but the raw model disagrees. The Strong vs Weak table flags intervention risk for high-CCI countries with low-CCI adversaries. When CCI is rising toward 58+ over 2-3 years, that's the window to reduce exposure - not after it crosses.

Watching for the next crisis

The watchlist shows who's flagged that isn't in the news cycle yet. Stressed Lashes Out identifies which pressured countries have accessible targets - Venezuela-Guyana was on this table before the naval incidents. The backtest calibrates trust: 58% hit rate is honest. Knowing the blind spots matters as much as the hits.

Planning humanitarian response

Both Stressed pairs won't resolve - plan for sustained operations, not breakthroughs. Critical Rising countries are getting worse: the trajectory matters more than the snapshot. Sudan (locked 44, raw 63, gap +19) is the biggest mismatch in the dataset - headline data says "improving," the raw model says critical, the civil war confirms the model.

Reading the numbers

CCI 65+

Structural crisis zone. Something typically breaks within 1-2 years. Ukraine was 70.1 two years before the invasion. Sri Lanka was 71.1 two years before collapse.

CCI 58-64

Elevated vulnerability. Not crisis yet, but less resilient to shocks. One bad event (oil price drop, political crisis, natural disaster) can push it over. Russia sits here at 64.9.

CCI 45-57

Mid-cycle. Structural pressure building but manageable. Watch the trend - rising toward 58 is a warning. Most large economies live here.

CCI < 45

Structurally resilient. External shocks get absorbed. New Zealand (36) barely moved during COVID. These countries recover; they don't spiral.

Hidden gap 8+

Raw model sees stress that historical adjustments dampen. These are surprise candidates. Lebanon had a +13 gap before the 2026 war. Sudan has +19 right now.

Gap 20+

CCI gap between rivals. When a low-CCI power faces a high-CCI adversary with 20+ gap, intervention patterns activate. Every US military action in the dataset had this signature.

2yr lag

CCI data has ~2 year publication lag. Today's scores reflect 2024 conditions. The world has moved. This is why the backtest checks t-2, not t-0.

What this cannot see

- Military or political decisions (coups, invasions by low-CCI countries)

- Terrorist attacks and asymmetric warfare

- Falsified economic data (Greece pre-2010)

- Natural disasters triggering political collapse

- Ethnic and ideological conflicts in stable-CCI countries

- Timing. The model sees the kindling, not the match.