The Compost Index

Nations compost. Where's yours in the cycle?
CCI - Composite Cycle Index | 132 countries with complete data | 85 with incomplete data | Data vintage: 2023-2024 | Sources: IMF WEO, World Bank WDI/WGI, V-Dem v16
Conflict Risk Matrix → CCI patterns that precede conflict - applied to 70 geopolitical rivalries
What is this?

Every civilization follows the same fiscal lifecycle. A lean government is created to keep the peace. It hires helpers. The helpers hire assistants. The assistants create departments. The departments need budgets. The budgets need taxes. The taxes need enforcement. The enforcement needs more helpers. Nobody votes to fire themselves.

Eventually the state consumes more than the productive economy can sustain. Things break. Reset. Repeat. This has happened to every civilization in recorded history - Rome, the Caliphates, the Ottomans, the British Empire. No exceptions. Ibn Khaldun documented the pattern in 1377. We're just adding a spreadsheet.

The Compost Index measures where each country sits in this cycle - from Spring (post-reset, lean) to Deep Winter (collapse). Think of it as a fiscal weather report. We don't predict when winter comes. We measure the temperature.

What this answers
✓ Is the state growing or shrinking? ✓ How much is really being extracted? ✓ Is the fiscal trajectory sustainable? ✓ Are institutions constraining power? ✓ Is the country masking extraction with resource revenue? ✓ Where should I hold assets / earn income?
What this does NOT answer
✗ Is this a good place to live? ✗ How wealthy is the population? ✗ Are human rights respected? ✗ Will the economy grow next year? ✗ Should I move here? ✗ Is the government legitimate?

Rwanda and Singapore can score similarly - both have lean governments early in the cycle. One is a $90k/capita city-state, the other a $1k/capita autocracy. The CCI doesn't care. It measures the cycle position, not the quality of the ride. A country composting at CCI 70 with excellent hospitals is still composting.

1
Mid Summer
12
Late Summer
78
Early Autumn
35
Mid Autumn
6
Late Autumn
CCI vs Quality of Life (HDI) - All Countries
The DreamComfortable DeclineUntapped PotentialThe Spiral 0 25 50 75 100 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 CCI (cycle position) → HDI (quality of life) → GRC RUS CHN BRA IND USA FRA KAZ CAN SGP DEU ARG GBR RWA ARE CHE NZL AUS IRL
132 countries
# ▲ Country ▲ CCI ▲ Season ▲ Spend% ▲ Debt% ▲ Growth% ▲ Migr. ▲ Gov. ▲ Int% ▲ Fert. ▲ Hidden ▲ HDI ▲ Data ▲
1 Ukraine 65.9 Late Autumn 71.3 108.6 2 30.27 -0.57 8.3 0.99 8.8 0.779 7/7
2 Greece 65.1 Late Autumn 48 146.7 2 -11.8 0.32 7.5 1.24 9.2 0.908 7/7
3 Bahrain 64 Late Autumn 29.1 142.5 2.9 14.29 0.49 31.9 1.8 5.1 0.899 7/7
4 Angola 63.1 Late Autumn 18.4 62.4 2.1 -0.07 -0.84 25.2 5.05 6.9 0.616 7/7
5 Italy 62 Late Autumn 50.6 136.8 0.5 1.62 0.65 9.4 1.18 8.6 0.915 7/7
6 Congo, Rep. 61.9 Late Autumn 21.7 93.1 2.7 -0.39 -1.22 9 4.11 8.1 0.649 7/7
7 Russian Federation 59.6 Mid Autumn 36.9 23.1 0.6 -1.24 -0.86 2.4 1.42 7.2 0.832 7/7
8 Azerbaijan 59.2 Mid Autumn 33.9 22.4 3 1.06 -0.24 1.7 1.43 9.7 0.789 7/7
9 Belarus 58.8 Mid Autumn 28.5 35.8 2.1 -0.34 -0.94 4.2 1.22 8.2 0.824 7/7
10 China 58.4 Mid Autumn 32.9 96.3 4.8 -0.23 0.08 3.4 1.01 8.6 0.797 7/7
11 Brazil 58.1 Mid Autumn 45.7 91.4 2.4 -1.06 -0.34 30.1 1.61 9 0.786 7/7
12 El Salvador 57.4 Mid Autumn 31.4 87.6 2.5 -3.64 -0.41 14.3 1.77 7.2 0.678 7/7
13 Hungary 57.2 Mid Autumn 46.9 74.8 0.6 1.7 0.27 12.2 1.41 7 0.870 7/7
14 Equatorial Guinea 57 Mid Autumn 18.5 36.6 -1.6 2.06 -1.4 4.2 4.12 3.1 0.674 7/7
15 Lao PDR 56.7 Mid Autumn 10.3 90.7 3.5 -1.32 -0.74 11.8 2.4 8.7 0.617 7/7
16 Mozambique 56.6 Mid Autumn 33.2 97.2 2.5 -1.12 -0.93 15.1 4.69 7 0.493 7/7
17 Mexico 56.2 Mid Autumn 30.3 58.9 1 -0.8 -0.63 20 1.89 6.2 0.789 7/7
18 Moldova 55.8 Mid Autumn 38 37.8 1.7 -11.28 -0.06 5.6 1.73 12.4 0.785 7/7
19 Gabon 55 Mid Autumn 24.8 76.2 1.9 0.44 -0.85 18.9 3.59 3.3 0.733 7/7
20 Bangladesh 54.8 Mid Autumn 12 40.3 3.8 -2.73 -0.91 20.8 2.14 7.7 0.685 7/7
21 Timor-Leste 54.7 Mid Autumn 52.5 13.9 3.9 -1.82 -0.66 0.1 2.63 10 0.634 7/7
22 Poland 54.1 Mid Autumn 49.4 60 3.2 -6.51 0.68 5.2 1.14 8.7 0.906 7/7
23 India 53.9 Mid Autumn 28.4 81.4 6.6 -0.43 -0.01 34 1.96 6.1 0.685 7/7
24 Thailand 53.9 Mid Autumn 22.7 64.9 2 0.33 -0.1 5.8 1.2 8 0.798 7/7
25 Guinea-Bissau 53.3 Mid Autumn 20.4 76.2 5.1 -0.78 -1.28 21 3.76 7.5 0.514 7/7
26 United States 52.9 Mid Autumn 37.9 125 2 3.78 1.19 20.3 1.63 7.1 0.938 7/7
27 Serbia 52.9 Mid Autumn 35.5 43.9 2.4 -1.23 -0.15 3.6 1.64 7.5 0.833 7/7
28 Bosnia and Herzegovina 52.8 Mid Autumn 43.3 30.6 2.4 -1.42 -0.45 2.4 1.49 8.9 0.804 7/7
29 France 52.6 Mid Autumn 57.2 116.5 0.7 1.32 1.14 4.2 1.61 7.8 0.920 7/7
30 Turkiye 52.3 Mid Autumn 32.6 24.3 3.5 -3.23 -0.42 11.7 1.48 8 0.853 7/7
31 Romania 52.2 Mid Autumn 39.9 61.2 1 -1.49 0.3 7.3 1.39 8.6 0.845 7/7
32 Spain 51.9 Mid Autumn 45.3 100.4 2.9 2.29 0.84 6.5 1.1 8.6 0.918 7/7
33 Finland 51.9 Mid Autumn 57.7 86.8 0.5 4.79 2 2.9 1.25 6.5 0.948 7/7
34 Maldives 51.9 Mid Autumn 46.1 131.8 4.8 -4.59 -0.19 9.7 1.56 4.6 0.766 7/7
35 Nicaragua 51.9 Mid Autumn 27.1 39.3 3 -1.18 -1.27 7 2.21 8.8 0.706 7/7
36 Slovak Republic 51.8 Mid Autumn 47.1 59.6 0.9 -3.88 0.43 3.5 1.46 9.2 0.880 7/7
37 San Marino 50.9 Mid Autumn 40.5 62.7 1 1.09 1.02 5 1.16 9.1 0.915 7/7
38 Uganda 50.6 Mid Autumn 18.7 52.4 6.4 -2.36 -0.68 21 4.16 8.8 0.582 7/7
39 Cote d'Ivoire 50.4 Mid Autumn 20.4 55.6 6.4 0.25 -0.34 18 4.23 10.1 0.582 7/7
40 Colombia 50.2 Mid Autumn 34.6 58.9 2.5 2.68 -0.24 13.9 1.63 9.3 0.788 7/7
41 Jordan 50.1 Mid Autumn 33 89.7 2.7 -13.54 0.23 18.6 2.6 2.7 0.754 7/7
42 Malawi 49.9 Early Autumn 20.2 80.4 2.4 -0.07 -0.53 29.9 3.59 7.4 0.517 7/7
43 Slovenia 49.9 Early Autumn 46.5 66.6 1.1 1.56 0.89 2.9 1.52 8.6 0.931 7/7
44 Kazakhstan 49.7 Early Autumn 17.4 24.8 5.9 -0.36 -0.06 9 2.98 4.9 0.837 7/7
45 Marshall Islands 49.6 Early Autumn 71.6 10.6 2.5 -47.01 0.06 0.4 2.86 6 0.733 7/7
46 Albania 49.6 Early Autumn 28.9 54.1 3.4 -10.29 -0.02 7.4 1.34 8.4 0.810 7/7
47 Cameroon 49.4 Early Autumn 12.4 37.9 3.8 -0.48 -1 6.8 4.26 6.5 0.588 7/7
48 Papua New Guinea 49.3 Early Autumn 20.4 50.4 4.7 -0.07 -0.72 13.9 3.07 6.9 0.576 7/7
49 Belgium 49.1 Early Autumn 54.5 107.5 1.1 3.06 1.3 4.5 1.44 7.5 0.951 7/7
50 Ethiopia 49 Early Autumn 9.5 46.7 7.2 0.23 -0.74 12.6 3.91 7.8 0.497 7/7
51 Burkina Faso 48.9 Early Autumn 27.8 53.2 4 -1.1 -0.63 10.1 4.11 6.2 0.459 7/7
52 Saudi Arabia 48.8 Early Autumn 29.6 29.2 4 3.46 0.61 3.5 2.31 4 0.900 7/7
53 Mali 48.8 Early Autumn 12.2 48.9 5 -1.92 -1.03 7.6 5.51 6.1 0.419 7/7
54 Canada 48.8 Early Autumn 44.7 113.9 1.2 8.93 1.55 8.4 1.25 3.7 0.939 7/7
55 North Macedonia 48.7 Early Autumn 36.7 52.9 3.4 -3.14 -0.08 4.7 1.4 7.5 0.815 7/7
56 Central African Republic 48.6 Early Autumn 19.5 57.1 3 -2.88 -1.47 4.2 5.95 6.7 0.414 7/7
57 Croatia 48.5 Early Autumn 48 57 3.1 -1.34 0.38 4.2 1.46 7.1 0.889 7/7
58 Nepal 48.4 Early Autumn 19.4 49.3 4.3 -13.53 -0.59 8 1.96 8.8 0.622 7/7
59 Latvia 48.4 Early Autumn 44.5 47.1 1 -1.19 0.94 2.7 1.24 6.9 0.889 7/7
60 Cambodia 48.4 Early Autumn 17.3 27.8 4.8 -1.87 -0.8 1.8 2.55 8 0.606 7/7
61 Armenia 48.3 Early Autumn 20.9 53.4 4.8 -9.88 -0.06 12.6 1.7 6 0.811 7/7
62 Kenya 48.2 Early Autumn 23.3 68 4.8 -0.35 -0.47 24.3 3.17 8.9 0.628 7/7
63 Austria 48.1 Early Autumn 56 82 0.3 0.96 1.46 3.1 1.31 6.9 0.930 7/7
64 Togo 48 Early Autumn 26.4 71.9 5.2 -1.47 -0.63 14 4.12 6.4 0.571 7/7
65 Peru 47.9 Early Autumn 22.3 32.1 2.9 0.54 -0.34 6.6 1.96 8.6 0.794 7/7
66 Philippines 47.6 Early Autumn 24.9 58.2 5.4 -1.38 -0.23 17.3 1.89 5.7 0.720 7/7
67 Uzbekistan 47.5 Early Autumn 27.6 31.1 6.8 -0.19 -0.52 3.3 3.49 7.6 0.740 7/7
68 Lesotho 47.2 Early Autumn 53.5 57.1 1.4 -2.18 -0.46 3.5 2.66 4.1 0.550 7/7
69 Singapore 47.1 Early Autumn 21 213.1 1.9 3.31 1.95 0.5 0.97 1.3 0.946 7/7
70 Palau 47 Early Autumn 58.3 63.1 4.5 -0.79 0.54 0.6 1.88 6 0.786 7/7
71 Nauru 47 Early Autumn 103.6 15 2.1 -10.13 0.06 0 3.29 6 0.703 7/7
72 Tanzania 46.9 Early Autumn 19.1 49.6 6 -0.44 -0.41 13.9 4.54 9.5 0.555 7/7
73 Madagascar 46.8 Early Autumn 16.2 49.7 3.8 -0.06 -0.88 4.8 3.91 8.2 0.487 7/7
74 Mongolia 46.8 Early Autumn 37.5 46.6 5.5 0.02 -0.26 4.3 2.5 7.3 0.747 7/7
75 Luxembourg 46.8 Early Autumn 76.3 44.1 -0.4 8.39 1.91 0.6 1.25 5.2 0.922 7/7
76 Portugal 46.7 Early Autumn 42.8 90.9 1.9 1.93 0.9 5.4 1.41 6.8 0.890 7/7
77 Morocco 46.4 Early Autumn 33 67.2 4.4 -1.23 -0.18 8 2.21 6.6 0.710 7/7
78 Honduras 46.3 Early Autumn 25.7 45.1 3.8 -0.45 -0.92 10.6 2.48 8.9 0.645 7/7
79 Congo, Dem. Rep. 46.2 Early Autumn 16.7 19.1 5.3 -0.25 -1.53 0.5 5.98 6.4 0.522 7/7
80 Senegal 46.1 Early Autumn 33.5 122.9 6 -0.56 -0.02 12.3 3.76 7.5 0.530 7/7
81 Paraguay 45.9 Early Autumn 21 41.7 4.4 -1.8 -0.53 10.3 2.42 8.1 0.756 7/7
82 Burundi 45.9 Early Autumn 22.3 40.3 4.4 -1.93 -1.15 2.4 4.79 8 0.439 7/7
83 Micronesia, Fed. Sts. 45.7 Early Autumn 57 9.3 1 -9.76 0.18 0.4 2.74 4.7 0.615 7/7
84 Georgia 45.6 Early Autumn 30.3 34.2 7.2 0.47 0.41 5.5 1.8 9.2 0.844 7/7
85 Eswatini 45.6 Early Autumn 32.8 42.8 4.3 -5.43 -0.77 7.4 2.72 2.5 0.695 7/7
86 Germany 45.5 Early Autumn 49.4 64.4 0.2 0.44 1.61 2.5 1.36 7.1 0.959 7/7
87 Cabo Verde 45.4 Early Autumn 26.1 106 5.2 -2.3 0.46 10.9 1.51 5.1 0.668 7/7
88 Estonia 45.3 Early Autumn 43.6 24.4 0.5 -5.64 1.46 1.4 1.18 6.7 0.905 7/7
89 Argentina 45.2 Early Autumn 31 78.8 4.5 0.08 -0.16 8.5 1.5 7.2 0.865 7/7
90 Ghana 45.1 Early Autumn 23.2 59.1 4 -0.38 -0.04 21.6 3.34 8.7 0.628 7/7
91 United Kingdom 45 Early Autumn 44 103.4 1.3 6.03 1.37 8.3 1.55 4.3 0.946 7/7
92 Fiji 44.8 Early Autumn 30.8 76.6 3.2 -3.53 0.39 13.9 2.27 5.4 0.731 7/7
93 Bulgaria 44.3 Early Autumn 36.7 28.4 3 0.08 0.01 1.4 1.72 6.3 0.845 7/7
94 Rwanda 44.2 Early Autumn 28.8 73.2 7.1 -1.09 0.34 7.7 3.64 6.1 0.578 7/7
95 Israel 44.1 Early Autumn 43.8 69.2 2.5 1.06 0.93 9.4 2.87 5 0.919 7/7
96 Malta 44.1 Early Autumn 40.3 56 2.9 11.12 0.53 3.5 1.01 5.4 0.924 7/7
97 Guatemala 44 Early Autumn 13.4 27 3.8 -0.42 -0.78 12.5 2.29 7 0.662 7/7
98 Jamaica 44 Early Autumn 30 59.2 2.1 -3.7 0.02 22.4 1.35 5.5 0.720 7/7
99 Kiribati 43.9 Early Autumn 98.1 8.7 3.9 -3.5 0.06 0.7 3.12 6 0.644 7/7
100 Malaysia 43.8 Early Autumn 23.9 70.4 4.5 4.92 0.61 15.6 1.54 4.7 0.819 7/7
101 Czechia 43.6 Early Autumn 42.8 44 2.3 -7.9 1.13 3.5 1.36 8.4 0.915 7/7
102 United Arab Emirates 43.6 Early Autumn 21.4 34 4.8 25.34 1.01 3 1.21 1.7 0.940 7/7
103 Tonga 43.5 Early Autumn 34.7 31.6 2.7 -20.63 0.02 1.3 3.1 6.9 0.769 7/7
104 Dominican Republic 43.1 Early Autumn 19.5 60 3 -3.05 -0.04 19.3 2.22 4.3 0.776 7/7
105 Vanuatu 43.1 Early Autumn 41.1 48.6 1.7 -0.13 -0.22 2.4 3.57 8.3 0.621 7/7
106 Kyrgyz Republic 43 Early Autumn 33.7 37.8 8 0.5 -0.87 2.6 2.6 5.9 0.720 7/7
107 Tajikistan 43 Early Autumn 27.7 22 7.5 -2.01 -0.94 2.9 3.04 6.1 0.691 7/7
108 South Africa 42.7 Early Autumn 33 77.3 1.1 2.61 -0.12 17.3 2.2 3.4 0.741 7/7
109 Namibia 42.5 Early Autumn 39.9 63.6 3.6 1.39 0.17 14.5 3.21 4.2 0.665 7/7
110 Panama 41.7 Early Autumn 23.1 59.6 4 1.49 -0.16 20.4 2.11 4.8 0.839 7/7
111 Lithuania 41.6 Early Autumn 34.1 41.8 2.7 0.91 1.22 1.9 1.11 6.1 0.895 7/7
112 St. Kitts and Nevis 41.4 Early Autumn 43.2 61.9 1.7 -0.15 0.53 2.7 1.53 3.3 0.840 7/7
113 Cyprus 41.2 Early Autumn 40 57.7 2.9 5.99 0.71 2.8 1.38 7.7 0.913 7/7
114 Korea, Rep. 41.2 Early Autumn 22.5 53.4 0.9 1.47 1.12 4.5 0.75 7.2 0.937 7/7
115 Uruguay 40.6 Early Autumn 31.1 66.6 2.5 -0.4 0.95 6.9 1.4 8.5 0.862 7/7
116 Iceland 40.6 Early Autumn 46.5 47.4 1.4 9.17 1.61 14.9 1.56 3.2 0.972 7/7
117 Botswana 40.3 Early Autumn 26.4 38.8 -0.9 -2.29 0.44 3.4 2.7 4.7 0.731 7/7
118 Bhutan 40 Early Autumn 27.1 105.6 6.8 -0.35 0.69 1.5 1.45 7.2 0.698 7/7
119 Mauritius 40 Early Autumn 29.1 88.1 3.2 -2.24 0.67 10.4 1.44 3.9 0.806 7/7
120 Solomon Islands 39.4 Late Summer 35.8 23.7 2.7 1.97 -0.44 1.2 3.51 7.5 0.584 7/7
121 Switzerland 39.3 Late Summer 31.9 36.9 0.9 4.45 1.85 0.9 1.29 6.6 0.970 7/7
122 Norway 39.2 Late Summer 48.5 42.7 1.2 7.96 1.86 1.6 1.45 4.2 0.970 7/7
123 Netherlands 38.7 Late Summer 44.4 44 1.4 6.76 1.77 1.7 1.43 6 0.955 7/7
124 Bahamas, The 38.4 Late Summer 21 74.1 2.2 2.54 0.52 20 1.37 1.5 0.820 7/7
125 Costa Rica 37.8 Late Summer 18.9 59.7 3.6 0.19 0.54 15.9 1.32 8 0.833 7/7
126 Chile 37.6 Late Summer 26.7 42.7 2.5 2.95 0.89 5.2 1.14 3.3 0.878 7/7
127 New Zealand 36.2 Late Summer 41.9 53.2 0.8 3.55 1.82 4.7 1.57 2.1 0.938 7/7
128 Sweden 35.5 Late Summer 49.3 34.2 0.7 4.74 1.79 1.1 1.43 2.3 0.959 7/7
129 Australia 34.8 Late Summer 38.9 51 1.8 5.09 1.71 3.1 1.48 1.7 0.958 7/7
130 Samoa 33.7 Late Summer 26.7 20.9 2.7 -12.63 0.52 1.2 3.8 4.1 0.708 7/7
131 Denmark 32 Late Summer 47.3 29.6 1.8 4.29 2.03 1.4 1.47 1.3 0.962 7/7
132 Ireland 28.6 Mid Summer 31.2 46.2 4.3 7.24 1.64 2.3 1.47 2.4 0.949 7/7
- Korea, Dem. People's Rep. 75.6* Early Winter - - - -0.09 -1.56 - 1.78 8 3/7
- Venezuela, RB 70.7* Late Autumn 17.6 - 0.5 -3.71 -1.79 - 2.08 7.6 5/7
- Eritrea 68.6* Late Autumn - - - -3.59 -1.73 - 3.68 6.8 3/7
- Cuba 68.3* Late Autumn - - -1.5 -2.04 -0.64 - 1.44 2.4 4/7
- Syrian Arab Republic 66.1* Late Autumn - - -2.6 22.15 -1.8 - 2.7 5.2 4/7
- Myanmar 65.5* Late Autumn 20.7 63.5 -2.7 -0.7 -1.51 9.6 2.1 9.4 7/7
- Afghanistan 65* Late Autumn 39.2 - -6.9 -1.03 -1.68 0.1 4.76 8.8 6/7
- Yemen, Rep. 63.9* Late Autumn 8.9 71.4 -1.5 -0.26 -1.75 - 4.5 6.8 6/7
- Sri Lanka 63.3* Late Autumn 19.3 - -1.1 -1.24 -0.3 79.9 1.95 6.6 6/7
- Sudan 63.3* Late Autumn 6.4 221.5 3.2 -10.79 -1.7 5.1 4.26 4.9 7/7
- Haiti 61.8* Late Autumn 5.2 11.8 -3.1 -2.7 -1.66 - 2.62 8 6/7
- Algeria 60.5* Late Autumn 36.8 54 3.4 -0.67 -0.57 - 2.72 5 6/7
- Iran, Islamic Rep. 60.2* Late Autumn 14.2 35.6 0.6 2.08 -1.15 0.6 1.68 5.8 7/7
- Egypt, Arab Rep. 59.9* Mid Autumn 30.2 87 4.3 1.06 -0.54 33.3 2.74 8.1 7/7
- Northern Mariana Islands 59.4* Mid Autumn - - -3.2 -24.78 - - 2.32 0 3/7
- Japan 58.4* Mid Autumn 39.1 229.6 1.1 1.24 1.57 - 1.15 0.4 6/7
- Kuwait 58.2* Mid Autumn 50.4 7.3 2.6 12.58 0.3 - 1.56 2.3 6/7
- Bolivia 57.8* Mid Autumn 39.8 93.7 0.6 -0.24 -1.03 8 2.52 10 7/7
- Pakistan 57.1* Mid Autumn 19.5 71.6 2.7 -5.58 -0.87 - 3.55 9.3 6/7
- Isle of Man 56.8* Mid Autumn - - -2.3 2.1 - - 1.54 0 3/7
- Chad 56* Mid Autumn 18.8 31.5 3.3 10.05 -1.26 - 6.03 8 6/7
- Lebanon 55.8* Mid Autumn 16.5 - -6.7 -2.97 -1.12 5.4 2.23 4.6 6/7
- West Bank and Gaza 55.6* Mid Autumn 26.2 - -7.3 -4.38 -0.78 - 3.25 2.2 5/7
- Turkmenistan 55.4* Mid Autumn - 3.9 2.3 1.95 -1.36 - 2.66 3.5 5/7
- Ecuador 55.4* Mid Autumn 38.1 - 3.2 -1.09 -0.65 4.7 1.81 9.8 6/7
- Libya 54.8* Mid Autumn - - 15.6 0.47 -1.6 - 2.3 2.5 4/7
- South Sudan 54.6* Mid Autumn - 66 24.3 1.29 -2.03 - 3.78 8 5/7
- Iraq 54.5* Mid Autumn 27.6 53.1 0.5 -0.39 -1.17 0 3.22 5.9 7/7
- Mauritania 53.9* Mid Autumn - 41.2 4 -0.42 -0.83 - 4.62 7.6 5/7
- Tunisia 53.4* Mid Autumn 33.8 80.6 2.5 -1.24 -0.3 5.6 1.82 8 7/7
- Nigeria 52.8* Mid Autumn 12.3 36.4 3.9 -0.15 -0.94 - 4.38 10 6/7
- Comoros 52* Mid Autumn 19.1 30.2 3.8 -2.37 -1.18 - 3.82 7.7 6/7
- Dominica 51* Mid Autumn 58.8 95.7 4.2 -3.02 0.28 - 1.48 0 6/7
- Qatar 50.8* Mid Autumn 26 40.6 2.9 16.13 0.86 - 1.72 1.1 6/7
- Zambia 50.8* Mid Autumn 25.1 - 5.8 0.35 -0.49 27.4 4.04 7.8 6/7
- New Caledonia 50.8* Mid Autumn - - -2.7 1.55 0.61 - 1.96 1.1 4/7
- Viet Nam 50.6* Mid Autumn 19.1 32 6.5 -0.59 -0.23 - 1.9 6.5 6/7
- Somalia, Fed. Rep. 50.1* Mid Autumn 6.3 - 3 1.41 -1.92 0.6 6.01 5.9 6/7
- Zimbabwe 49.9* Early Autumn 11 45 6 -3.64 -1.16 13.5 3.67 6 7/7
- Guinea 49.7* Early Autumn 20.6 42.2 7.2 -0.81 -1.03 - 4.13 8 6/7
- Djibouti 49.3* Early Autumn 20.6 30.5 6 -0.01 -0.81 - 2.62 6.6 6/7
- Virgin Islands (U.S.) 49.1* Early Autumn - - 1.3 -4.02 0.5 - 1.97 0 4/7
- Oman 48.6* Early Autumn 28.7 35.1 2.9 29.2 0.55 - 2.51 2.6 6/7
- Niger 48.5* Early Autumn 13.4 42.2 6.6 -0.15 -0.77 - 5.94 8 6/7
- Liberia 47.6* Early Autumn - 55.7 4.6 -1.39 -1 - 3.86 8 5/7
- Sierra Leone 47.5* Early Autumn - 41.2 4.4 -1.27 -0.89 - 3.7 8 5/7
- Guyana 47.5* Early Autumn 23.2 29 10.3 -6.51 -0.31 - 2.4 3.4 6/7
- Hong Kong SAR, China 47.3* Early Autumn 23.3 11.7 2.4 -2.56 1.47 - 0.84 0 6/7
- Trinidad and Tobago 47.1* Early Autumn 32.5 65.3 1 0.97 -0.2 13.2 1.54 6.1 7/7
- French Polynesia 46* Early Autumn - - 0.3 -4.47 0.4 - 1.49 1.3 4/7
- Puerto Rico (US) 45.4* Early Autumn - 27.4 1.2 3.61 0.34 - 0.92 0.4 5/7
- Montenegro 45.1* Early Autumn - 60.8 3.2 -2.7 0.15 - 1.8 1.2 5/7
- Indonesia 44.4* Early Autumn 16.8 40.8 4.9 -0.14 -0.11 11.1 2.12 7.5 7/7
- Curacao 44.3* Early Autumn - - 0.1 3.29 - - 1.4 0 3/7
- Barbados 44.1* Early Autumn 29.7 99.8 2.7 -0.25 0.75 25.6 1.71 1.9 7/7
- Kosovo 44.1* Early Autumn - - 6 -13.91 -0.12 - 1.54 0 4/7
- Belize 43.8* Early Autumn 26.3 64.7 1.5 1.17 -0.28 9.4 2.02 2.7 7/7
- Faroe Islands 43.6* Early Autumn - - 1.5 8.92 - - 1.91 0 3/7
- St. Vincent and the Grenadines 43.2* Early Autumn 39.1 94 4.4 -7.32 0.4 8.1 1.76 2.1 7/7
- Gambia, The 43.2* Early Autumn - 74.4 6 -1.08 -0.48 - 3.91 8 5/7
- Benin 43.1* Early Autumn 18.1 50.7 7 -0.53 -0.28 - 4.48 8 6/7
- Suriname 43* Early Autumn 29.2 89.1 2.7 -1.84 -0.49 - 2.23 2 6/7
- St. Martin (French part) 42.8* Early Autumn - - 5.8 -54.5 - - 2.67 0 3/7
- Sao Tome and Principe 42.8* Early Autumn - 51.4 2.9 -2.56 -0.44 - 3.6 5.4 5/7
- British Virgin Islands 42.3* Early Autumn - - - 5.37 - - 1.05 0 2/7
- Grenada 42.1* Early Autumn 37.1 67.7 3.3 -1.64 0.27 - 1.47 0 6/7
- Brunei Darussalam 41.9* Early Autumn - 2.3 1.8 0 0.87 - 1.73 3.5 5/7
- Guam 40.7* Early Autumn - - -0.6 -3 0.97 - 2.75 0.9 4/7
- St. Lucia 40.6* Early Autumn 24.3 77 2.4 -0.04 0.35 13.6 1.38 2.7 7/7
- Channel Islands 40.3* Early Autumn - - 2 4.44 - - 1.37 0 3/7
- American Samoa 39.3* Late Summer - - 2.5 -23.74 0.86 - 2.27 0 4/7
- Antigua and Barbuda 38.9* Late Summer 19.8 65.7 2.5 0.1 0.49 - 1.58 0 6/7
- Bermuda 37.5* Late Summer - - 2.4 -0.08 1.02 - 1.4 0 4/7
- Tuvalu 36.6* Late Summer - 3.6 3 -29.03 0.18 - 3.17 0 5/7
- Macao SAR, China 36.2* Late Summer 19.6 - 2.6 2.36 0.98 - 0.58 0.1 5/7
- Aruba 35.9* Late Summer 21.2 67.1 2 1.31 0.93 - 1.61 0 6/7
- Greenland 35.5* Late Summer - - 1.2 -5 1.48 - 1.71 0 4/7
- Andorra 35.2* Late Summer - 31.7 2.4 12.06 1.21 1.5 1.09 6.9 6/7
- Cayman Islands 33.1* Late Summer - - 1 12.03 0.92 - 1.52 0 4/7
- Seychelles 32.5* Late Summer 33.8 56.7 3.9 14.4 0.71 14.1 1.85 0 7/7
- Turks and Caicos Islands 32.2* Late Summer - - 3.8 3.78 - - 1.45 0 3/7
- Sint Maarten (Dutch part) 31.9* Mid Summer - - 2.3 12.87 - - 1.44 0 3/7
- Monaco 30.3* Mid Summer - - 6.6 2.85 1.5 - 2.1 0 4/7
- Gibraltar 28.3* Mid Summer - - - 15.21 - - 1.88 0 2/7
- Liechtenstein 26.3* Mid Summer - 0.5 1 5.09 1.68 - 1.37 0 5/7
FAQ
What is the Compost Index?

Every civilization follows the same fiscal lifecycle. A lean government is created to keep the peace. It hires helpers. The helpers hire assistants. The assistants create departments. The departments need budgets. The budgets need taxes. Nobody votes to fire themselves. Eventually the state consumes more than the productive economy can sustain. Things break. Reset. Repeat.

This has happened to every civilization in recorded history - Rome, the Caliphates, the Ottomans, the British Empire. No exceptions. Ibn Khaldun documented the pattern in 1377. We're just adding a spreadsheet.

The CCI measures where each country sits in this cycle, from Spring (post-reset, lean) to Deep Winter (collapse). Think of it as a fiscal weather report.

What are the 7 indicators?
Spending (15%) - Total government expenditure as % of GDP. How much of the economy the state consumes. Source: IMF WEO.
Debt (12%) - Gross government debt as % of GDP. How much the state has borrowed against the future. Source: IMF WEO.
Growth (13%) - GDP per capita growth, inverted. Low or negative growth signals extraction is suffocating the productive economy. Source: IMF/World Bank.
Migration (8%) - Net migration rate per 1000 population, inverted. People vote with their feet. Outflow is the most honest signal a country produces. Source: UN via World Bank.
Governance (25%) - The heaviest weight. Blended from two sources: 30% WGI (World Bank - does the government function?) + 70% V-Dem Liberal Democracy Index (U. Gothenburg - is the government constrained?). A country needs both. Rwanda is effective but unconstrained. NZ is both. Venezuela is neither.
Fiscal Pressure (14%) - Interest payments as % of government revenue. When this is high, the state is paying for past borrowing instead of current services. The death spiral mechanism. Source: World Bank.
Demographics (13%) - Composite of fertility rate (below replacement = future worker shortage) and old-age dependency ratio (more retirees per worker = more fiscal pressure). A 20-30 year trajectory signal. Source: World Bank.
What are the three adjustments?
Hidden Extraction (+0 to 15 pts) - Official spending understates real extraction. Four proxies estimate what's hidden: shadow economy size (IMF research), employer payroll burden, self-employment rate (flight from formal extraction), and the gap between spending and formal tax revenue. When fewer proxies have data, scores scale proportionally with lower confidence caps.
Resource Masking (+0 to 8 pts) - Countries funded by oil, gas, or coal look artificially healthy because resource revenue substitutes for citizen taxation. When the resource depletes or demand shifts, the state must suddenly extract from citizens. Minerals get a 30% discount (longer runway). Agriculture gets zero adjustment - soybeans don't run out.
Development Adjustment (+0 to 8 pts) - Low spending isn't "lean" if the country is too poor to spend more. Wagner's Law: expected spending rises with income level. If actual spending is far below expected AND governance is poor, the country isn't lean-by-choice (Singapore) - it's incapable (Tajikistan). Governance quality discriminates.
Why does governance get 25% weight?

The entire cycle thesis is about unconstrained power growing until it consumes the system. Good governance slows the cycle. Poor governance accelerates it. We blend WGI (does the government function?) with V-Dem (is the government constrained?) because WGI alone makes efficient autocracies like Rwanda and Kazakhstan look healthy. V-Dem catches them - Rwanda scores 0.090 out of 1.000 on the liberal democracy index. The 70/30 V-Dem/WGI blend correctly weights constraints over efficiency.

Why do Rwanda and Singapore score similarly?

Because the CCI measures cycle position, not quality of life. Both have lean governments early in the extraction cycle. Singapore is a $90k/capita city-state with world-class infrastructure. Rwanda is a $1k/capita autocracy where 25% of workers live in poverty. The CCI doesn't care. It measures whether the state is growing relative to the economy. The HDI column and scatter plot provide the quality-of-life dimension that CCI intentionally excludes.

What does the scatter plot show?

CCI (cycle position) on the X-axis, HDI (quality of life) on the Y-axis. Four quadrants emerge:

Top-left: The Dream - low extraction, high quality of life (NZ, Switzerland, Denmark)
Top-right: Comfortable Decline - growing state, QoL still holding (France, USA, Japan)
Bottom-left: Untapped Potential - lean but poor (Rwanda, Ethiopia)
Bottom-right: The Spiral - high extraction, declining QoL (Venezuela heading here)

On country detail pages, the scatter shows a temporal trail - dots fading from transparent (2000) to solid (2026) - revealing which direction the country is moving across both axes.

Why are some countries in the "incomplete" list?

A country needs all 7 indicators with data from 2020 or later to be "complete." Countries with missing or stale data go to the incomplete list - not because they're worse, but because their CCI is computed from fewer data points and is less reliable. Some are missing data because they're collapsing (Venezuela can't report). Some are missing data because they're small (Seychelles has 2008 spending data). The toggle lets you see them, but they're separated to avoid mixing reliable and unreliable scores in the same ranking.

Has any country ever reversed the cycle?

No. Every historical "solution" follows the same pattern: crisis, reset to smaller state, gradual regrowth, return to or exceed previous extraction levels, new crisis. New Zealand reformed in 1984 (spending dropped from 44% to 34% GDP). It's now back above 40%. The American Constitution was designed to prevent state growth. Federal spending went from 2% to 24% in 248 years. Switzerland's direct democracy is the closest to a brake - the slowest cycle in modern history - but spending still went from 10% (1900) to 32% (2024). Same direction, different speed.

Where does the data come from?
IMF World Economic Outlook - Government spending, debt, GDP growth. Updated twice yearly (April, October).
World Bank WDI - Migration, demographics, fiscal pressure, resource rents, self-employment. Updated quarterly.
World Bank WGI - Governance effectiveness, corruption, rule of law, regulatory quality. Updated annually (September).
V-Dem (U. Gothenburg) - Liberal democracy index, 531 indicators from 3,500 country experts. Updated annually.
Medina/Schneider (IMF WP 18/17) - Shadow economy estimates for 155 countries. One-off research, 1991-2015 averages.
UNDP HDI - Human Development Index for quality-of-life dimension. Updated annually.

All data is public and machine-readable. No proprietary sources.

Is this model biased?

Yes, in known ways. The weights (governance at 25%, spending at 15%, etc.) are judgment calls. The V-Dem/WGI blend ratio (70/30) is a choice. The season boundaries (where "summer" ends and "autumn" begins) are arbitrary lines on a continuous scale. The shadow economy data is from a single research paper using contested methodology. The model was built by someone who started with qualitative analysis of Brazil and then built the quantitative model - confirmation bias is possible.

The external datasets (IMF, World Bank, V-Dem, UNDP) are genuine and independently produced. The framework connecting them is ours. The honest position: the data is real, the framework has bias, the result is somewhere between objective measurement and informed opinion.