Honduras

45.7 Early Autumn #88 of 217 · HND · Latin America & Caribbean · Lower middle income · Data: 7/7

What's Driving the Score

Base CCI (7 indicators weighted) 35.2

Hidden extraction (shadow economy, employer burden) +8.9

Development adj (spending below expected for income level) +1.6

Total CCI 45.7

Development Context

GDP per capita: $3,426

Actual spending: 24.4% GDP

Expected (Wagner): 27.7% GDP

Gap: 3.3% below expected

Indicator Breakdown

Each indicator is normalized to 0-100. Higher = more late-cycle pressure. The composite CCI is a weighted average plus adjustments.

Spending

24.4% GDP 28.8 2020

Debt

45.1% GDP 22.6 2024

Growth

3.8% 41.3 2024

Migration

-0.45/1000 51.1 2024

Governance

-0.92 68.3 2024

Fiscal Pressure

10.6% of revenue 21.3 2020

Demographic

Fert: 2.48 | Dep: 6.8% 4.2 2024

Spending (18% weight) - Total general government expenditure as % of GDP. Source: IMF WEO. Range: 10% (lean) to 60% (heavy state). Higher spending = further in the cycle.

Debt (14%) - Gross government debt as % of GDP. Source: IMF WEO. Range: 0-200%. Debt accumulation is how states finance extraction beyond revenue.

Growth (15%) - Average real GDP per capita growth over 5 years. Source: IMF WEO / World Bank. Inverted: low or negative growth signals extraction is suffocating the productive economy.

Migration (10%) - Net migration rate per 1000 population. Source: UN Population Division via World Bank. Inverted: people leaving is the most honest indicator - they vote with their feet.

Governance (18%) - Composite of control of corruption, government effectiveness, rule of law, and regulatory quality. Source: World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators. Inverted: poor governance = extraction without accountability.

Fiscal Pressure (13%) - Interest payments as % of government revenue. Source: World Bank WDI. When interest consumes revenue, the state must tax more, borrow more, or print - the death spiral mechanism.

Demographic (12%) - Composite of fertility rate (below replacement = future worker shortage) and old-age dependency ratio (more retirees per worker = more fiscal pressure). Trajectory signal - affects the cycle in 20-30 years.

Hidden Extraction

Shadow Economy 37.7% GDP

Social Contributions 18.4% rev

Self-Employment 44.1%

Spending-Revenue Gap 9.3% GDP

Total Hidden Adjustment +8.9 pts

Official spending data understates real extraction. These proxies estimate what's hidden:

Shadow Economy - % of GDP operating outside formal taxation. Source: IMF WP 18/17 (Medina-Schneider). Brazil at 35% means a third of the economy is escaping formal taxation - but citizens still pay through embedded costs.

Social Contributions - Employer payroll burden as % of government revenue. Hidden from workers' payslips. A 22% figure means significant extraction happens before workers see their salary.

Self-Employment - High rates signal people fleeing formal employment because the extraction burden makes it unprofitable. Informal/self-employed workers still pay consumption taxes.

Spending-Revenue Gap - Difference between what the state spends and what it collects as formal tax. The gap is funded by hidden channels: forced savings (e.g. FGTS in Brazil), state enterprises, parastatal organizations, or money printing.

Resource Revenue

Minerals 0.4% GDP (long-runway)

Non-resource 98.8% GDP

Resource revenue is primarily from long-runway minerals. Minimal CCI masking adjustment applied.

CCI Trajectory (2000-2026) +4.5 pts over 26 years

Historical CCI computed from available indicators per year (spending, growth, governance, fiscal pressure, demographics). Not all 7 indicators are available for every year - early data points use fewer indicators. The trend direction matters more than absolute values.

Nearest Countries by CCI Score

#	Country	CCI	Season	Delta	Data
89	St. Martin (French part)	45.7	Early Autumn	+0.0	3/7
90	South Africa	45.7	Early Autumn	+0.0	7/7
91	Uruguay	45.7	Early Autumn	+0.0	7/7
87	Maldives	45.8	Early Autumn	+0.1	7/7
92	Jamaica	45.6	Early Autumn	-0.1	7/7