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Singapore

37.5 Late Summer #181 of 217 · SGP · East Asia & Pacific · High income · Data: 7/7
What's Driving the Score
Base CCI (7 indicators weighted) 34.8
Hidden extraction (shadow economy, employer burden) +1
Development adj (spending below expected for income level) +1.7
Total CCI 37.5
Development Context
GDP per capita: $90,674
Actual spending: 17.3% GDP
Expected (Wagner): 34.8% GDP
Gap: 17.5% below expected
Indicator Breakdown
Each indicator is normalized to 0-100. Higher = more late-cycle pressure. The composite CCI is a weighted average plus adjustments.
Spending
17.3% GDP 14.6 2023
Debt
175.6% GDP 87.8 2024
Growth
2.2% 52.0 2024
Migration
3.31/1000 41.7 2024
Governance
1.95 10.9 2024
Fiscal Pressure
0.5% of revenue 0.9 2024
Demographic
Fert: 0.97 | Dep: 18.3% 48.4 2024
Spending (18% weight) - Total general government expenditure as % of GDP. Source: IMF WEO. Range: 10% (lean) to 60% (heavy state). Higher spending = further in the cycle.
Debt (14%) - Gross government debt as % of GDP. Source: IMF WEO. Range: 0-200%. Debt accumulation is how states finance extraction beyond revenue.
Growth (15%) - Average real GDP per capita growth over 5 years. Source: IMF WEO / World Bank. Inverted: low or negative growth signals extraction is suffocating the productive economy.
Migration (10%) - Net migration rate per 1000 population. Source: UN Population Division via World Bank. Inverted: people leaving is the most honest indicator - they vote with their feet.
Governance (18%) - Composite of control of corruption, government effectiveness, rule of law, and regulatory quality. Source: World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators. Inverted: poor governance = extraction without accountability.
Fiscal Pressure (13%) - Interest payments as % of government revenue. Source: World Bank WDI. When interest consumes revenue, the state must tax more, borrow more, or print - the death spiral mechanism.
Demographic (12%) - Composite of fertility rate (below replacement = future worker shortage) and old-age dependency ratio (more retirees per worker = more fiscal pressure). Trajectory signal - affects the cycle in 20-30 years.
Hidden Extraction
Shadow Economy 9.2% GDP
Social Contributions -
Self-Employment 12.7%
Spending-Revenue Gap 3.1% GDP
Total Hidden Adjustment +1 pts
Official spending data understates real extraction. These proxies estimate what's hidden:
Shadow Economy - % of GDP operating outside formal taxation. Source: IMF WP 18/17 (Medina-Schneider). Brazil at 35% means a third of the economy is escaping formal taxation - but citizens still pay through embedded costs.
Social Contributions - Employer payroll burden as % of government revenue. Hidden from workers' payslips. A 22% figure means significant extraction happens before workers see their salary.
Self-Employment - High rates signal people fleeing formal employment because the extraction burden makes it unprofitable. Informal/self-employed workers still pay consumption taxes.
Spending-Revenue Gap - Difference between what the state spends and what it collects as formal tax. The gap is funded by hidden channels: forced savings (e.g. FGTS in Brazil), state enterprises, parastatal organizations, or money printing.
CCI Trajectory (2000-2026) +24.4 pts over 26 years
Spring E.Sum M.Sum L.Sum E.Aut M.Aut L.Aut E.Win 0 20 40 60 80 100 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2026 13.1 19.7 11.9 24.9 38.1 37.5 data 7/7 0/7
Historical CCI computed from available indicators per year (spending, growth, governance, fiscal pressure, demographics). Not all 7 indicators are available for every year - early data points use fewer indicators. The trend direction matters more than absolute values.
Nearest Countries by CCI Score
# Country CCI Season Delta Data
180 Norway 37.5 Late Summer +0.0 7/7
182 Georgia 37.5 Late Summer +0.0 7/7
183 Tajikistan 37.5 Late Summer +0.0 7/7
179 Djibouti 37.7 Late Summer +0.2 5/7
184 Tuvalu 37.3 Late Summer -0.2 5/7