Burkina Faso

40.6 Early Autumn #154 of 217 · BFA · Sub-Saharan Africa · Low income · Data: 7/7

What's Driving the Score

Base CCI (7 indicators weighted) 32.3

Hidden extraction (shadow economy, employer burden) +4.1

Resource masking (depletable resource dependency) +1.5

Development adj (spending below expected for income level) +2.7

Total CCI 40.6

Development Context

GDP per capita: $982

Actual spending: 19.6% GDP

Expected (Wagner): 25% GDP

Gap: 5.4% below expected

Indicator Breakdown

Each indicator is normalized to 0-100. Higher = more late-cycle pressure. The composite CCI is a weighted average plus adjustments.

Spending

19.6% GDP 19.1 2023

Debt

53.2% GDP 26.6 2024

Growth

4% 40.0 2024

Migration

-1.1/1000 52.7 2024

Governance

-0.63 62.7 2024

Fiscal Pressure

10.1% of revenue 20.2 2023

Demographic

Fert: 4.11 | Dep: 4.8% 0.0 2024

Spending (18% weight) - Total general government expenditure as % of GDP. Source: IMF WEO. Range: 10% (lean) to 60% (heavy state). Higher spending = further in the cycle.

Debt (14%) - Gross government debt as % of GDP. Source: IMF WEO. Range: 0-200%. Debt accumulation is how states finance extraction beyond revenue.

Growth (15%) - Average real GDP per capita growth over 5 years. Source: IMF WEO / World Bank. Inverted: low or negative growth signals extraction is suffocating the productive economy.

Migration (10%) - Net migration rate per 1000 population. Source: UN Population Division via World Bank. Inverted: people leaving is the most honest indicator - they vote with their feet.

Governance (18%) - Composite of control of corruption, government effectiveness, rule of law, and regulatory quality. Source: World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators. Inverted: poor governance = extraction without accountability.

Fiscal Pressure (13%) - Interest payments as % of government revenue. Source: World Bank WDI. When interest consumes revenue, the state must tax more, borrow more, or print - the death spiral mechanism.

Demographic (12%) - Composite of fertility rate (below replacement = future worker shortage) and old-age dependency ratio (more retirees per worker = more fiscal pressure). Trajectory signal - affects the cycle in 20-30 years.

Hidden Extraction

Shadow Economy -

Social Contributions -

Self-Employment 82.6%

Spending-Revenue Gap 1% GDP

Total Hidden Adjustment +4.1 pts

Official spending data understates real extraction. These proxies estimate what's hidden:

Shadow Economy - % of GDP operating outside formal taxation. Source: IMF WP 18/17 (Medina-Schneider). Brazil at 35% means a third of the economy is escaping formal taxation - but citizens still pay through embedded costs.

Social Contributions - Employer payroll burden as % of government revenue. Hidden from workers' payslips. A 22% figure means significant extraction happens before workers see their salary.

Self-Employment - High rates signal people fleeing formal employment because the extraction burden makes it unprofitable. Informal/self-employed workers still pay consumption taxes.

Spending-Revenue Gap - Difference between what the state spends and what it collects as formal tax. The gap is funded by hidden channels: forced savings (e.g. FGTS in Brazil), state enterprises, parastatal organizations, or money printing.

Resource Revenue +1.5 pts masking adjustment

Minerals 15.5% GDP (long-runway)

Non-resource 79.9% GDP

Depletable resources (oil, gas, coal) mask the real CCI by funding the state without citizen taxation. When the resource depletes or demand shifts, the state must suddenly extract from citizens. This country's CCI is adjusted +1.5 points to account for this masking effect.

CCI Trajectory (2000-2026) -11.9 pts over 26 years

Historical CCI computed from available indicators per year (spending, growth, governance, fiscal pressure, demographics). Not all 7 indicators are available for every year - early data points use fewer indicators. The trend direction matters more than absolute values.

Nearest Countries by CCI Score

#	Country	CCI	Season	Delta	Data
155	Malta	40.6	Early Autumn	+0.0	7/7
153	Fiji	40.7	Early Autumn	+0.1	7/7
156	Gambia, The	40.5	Early Autumn	-0.1	5/7
157	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	40.4	Early Autumn	-0.2	7/7
158	Ethiopia	40.2	Early Autumn	-0.4	7/7