Ethiopia

40.2 Early Autumn #158 of 217 · ETH · Sub-Saharan Africa · Not classified · Data: 7/7

What's Driving the Score

Base CCI (7 indicators weighted) 26.0

Hidden extraction (shadow economy, employer burden) +6.2

Development adj (spending below expected for income level) +8

Total CCI 40.2

Development Context

GDP per capita: $1,134

Actual spending: 6.1% GDP

Expected (Wagner): 25.3% GDP

Gap: 19.2% below expected

Indicator Breakdown

Each indicator is normalized to 0-100. Higher = more late-cycle pressure. The composite CCI is a weighted average plus adjustments.

Spending

6.1% GDP 0.0 2023

Debt

46.7% GDP 23.4 2024

Growth

7.2% 18.7 2024

Migration

0.23/1000 49.4 2024

Governance

-0.74 64.8 2024

Fiscal Pressure

12.6% of revenue 25.2 2024

Demographic

Fert: 3.91 | Dep: 5.6% 0.0 2024

Spending (18% weight) - Total general government expenditure as % of GDP. Source: IMF WEO. Range: 10% (lean) to 60% (heavy state). Higher spending = further in the cycle.

Debt (14%) - Gross government debt as % of GDP. Source: IMF WEO. Range: 0-200%. Debt accumulation is how states finance extraction beyond revenue.

Growth (15%) - Average real GDP per capita growth over 5 years. Source: IMF WEO / World Bank. Inverted: low or negative growth signals extraction is suffocating the productive economy.

Migration (10%) - Net migration rate per 1000 population. Source: UN Population Division via World Bank. Inverted: people leaving is the most honest indicator - they vote with their feet.

Governance (18%) - Composite of control of corruption, government effectiveness, rule of law, and regulatory quality. Source: World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators. Inverted: poor governance = extraction without accountability.

Fiscal Pressure (13%) - Interest payments as % of government revenue. Source: World Bank WDI. When interest consumes revenue, the state must tax more, borrow more, or print - the death spiral mechanism.

Demographic (12%) - Composite of fertility rate (below replacement = future worker shortage) and old-age dependency ratio (more retirees per worker = more fiscal pressure). Trajectory signal - affects the cycle in 20-30 years.

Hidden Extraction

Shadow Economy 25.1% GDP

Social Contributions -

Self-Employment 84.3%

Spending-Revenue Gap 2.7% GDP

Total Hidden Adjustment +6.2 pts

Official spending data understates real extraction. These proxies estimate what's hidden:

Shadow Economy - % of GDP operating outside formal taxation. Source: IMF WP 18/17 (Medina-Schneider). Brazil at 35% means a third of the economy is escaping formal taxation - but citizens still pay through embedded costs.

Social Contributions - Employer payroll burden as % of government revenue. Hidden from workers' payslips. A 22% figure means significant extraction happens before workers see their salary.

Self-Employment - High rates signal people fleeing formal employment because the extraction burden makes it unprofitable. Informal/self-employed workers still pay consumption taxes.

Spending-Revenue Gap - Difference between what the state spends and what it collects as formal tax. The gap is funded by hidden channels: forced savings (e.g. FGTS in Brazil), state enterprises, parastatal organizations, or money printing.

Resource Revenue

Minerals 0.3% GDP (long-runway)

Non-resource 94.1% GDP

Resource revenue is primarily from long-runway minerals. Minimal CCI masking adjustment applied.

CCI Trajectory (2000-2026) -10.3 pts over 26 years

Historical CCI computed from available indicators per year (spending, growth, governance, fiscal pressure, demographics). Not all 7 indicators are available for every year - early data points use fewer indicators. The trend direction matters more than absolute values.

Nearest Countries by CCI Score

#	Country	CCI	Season	Delta	Data
159	Cambodia	40.2	Early Autumn	+0.0	7/7
157	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	40.4	Early Autumn	+0.2	7/7
156	Gambia, The	40.5	Early Autumn	+0.3	5/7
154	Burkina Faso	40.6	Early Autumn	+0.4	7/7
155	Malta	40.6	Early Autumn	+0.4	7/7