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Gambia, The

40.5 Early Autumn #156 of 217 · GMB · Sub-Saharan Africa · Low income · Data: 5/7
What's Driving the Score
Base CCI (7 indicators weighted) 36.5
Hidden extraction (shadow economy, employer burden) +4
Total CCI 40.5
Indicator Breakdown
Each indicator is normalized to 0-100. Higher = more late-cycle pressure. The composite CCI is a weighted average plus adjustments.
Spending
- - -
Debt
74.4% GDP 37.2 2024
Growth
6% 26.7 2024
Migration
-1.08/1000 52.7 2024
Governance
-0.48 59.6 2024
Fiscal Pressure
- - -
Demographic
Fert: 3.91 | Dep: 5.4% 0.0 2024
Spending (18% weight) - Total general government expenditure as % of GDP. Source: IMF WEO. Range: 10% (lean) to 60% (heavy state). Higher spending = further in the cycle.
Debt (14%) - Gross government debt as % of GDP. Source: IMF WEO. Range: 0-200%. Debt accumulation is how states finance extraction beyond revenue.
Growth (15%) - Average real GDP per capita growth over 5 years. Source: IMF WEO / World Bank. Inverted: low or negative growth signals extraction is suffocating the productive economy.
Migration (10%) - Net migration rate per 1000 population. Source: UN Population Division via World Bank. Inverted: people leaving is the most honest indicator - they vote with their feet.
Governance (18%) - Composite of control of corruption, government effectiveness, rule of law, and regulatory quality. Source: World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators. Inverted: poor governance = extraction without accountability.
Fiscal Pressure (13%) - Interest payments as % of government revenue. Source: World Bank WDI. When interest consumes revenue, the state must tax more, borrow more, or print - the death spiral mechanism.
Demographic (12%) - Composite of fertility rate (below replacement = future worker shortage) and old-age dependency ratio (more retirees per worker = more fiscal pressure). Trajectory signal - affects the cycle in 20-30 years.
Hidden Extraction
Shadow Economy -
Social Contributions -
Self-Employment 68.6%
Spending-Revenue Gap -
Total Hidden Adjustment +4 pts
Official spending data understates real extraction. These proxies estimate what's hidden:
Shadow Economy - % of GDP operating outside formal taxation. Source: IMF WP 18/17 (Medina-Schneider). Brazil at 35% means a third of the economy is escaping formal taxation - but citizens still pay through embedded costs.
Social Contributions - Employer payroll burden as % of government revenue. Hidden from workers' payslips. A 22% figure means significant extraction happens before workers see their salary.
Self-Employment - High rates signal people fleeing formal employment because the extraction burden makes it unprofitable. Informal/self-employed workers still pay consumption taxes.
Spending-Revenue Gap - Difference between what the state spends and what it collects as formal tax. The gap is funded by hidden channels: forced savings (e.g. FGTS in Brazil), state enterprises, parastatal organizations, or money printing.
Resource Revenue
2.9% of GDP
Non-resource 97.1% GDP
Resource revenue is primarily from long-runway minerals. Minimal CCI masking adjustment applied.
CCI Trajectory (2000-2026) -2.2 pts over 26 years
Spring E.Sum M.Sum L.Sum E.Aut M.Aut L.Aut E.Win 0 20 40 60 80 100 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2026 42.7 58.6 62.3 54 43.9 40.5 data 7/7 0/7
Historical CCI computed from available indicators per year (spending, growth, governance, fiscal pressure, demographics). Not all 7 indicators are available for every year - early data points use fewer indicators. The trend direction matters more than absolute values.
Nearest Countries by CCI Score
# Country CCI Season Delta Data
154 Burkina Faso 40.6 Early Autumn +0.1 7/7
155 Malta 40.6 Early Autumn +0.1 7/7
157 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 40.4 Early Autumn -0.1 7/7
153 Fiji 40.7 Early Autumn +0.2 7/7
158 Ethiopia 40.2 Early Autumn -0.3 7/7