Vanuatu

39.2 Late Summer #169 of 217 · VUT · East Asia & Pacific · Lower middle income · Data: 7/7

What's Driving the Score

Base CCI (7 indicators weighted) 33.7

Hidden extraction (shadow economy, employer burden) +5.5

Total CCI 39.2

Development Context

GDP per capita: $3,411

Actual spending: 28.3% GDP

Expected (Wagner): 27.7% GDP

Indicator Breakdown

Each indicator is normalized to 0-100. Higher = more late-cycle pressure. The composite CCI is a weighted average plus adjustments.

Spending

28.3% GDP 36.7 2023

Debt

48.6% GDP 24.3 2024

Growth

1.7% 55.3 2024

Migration

-0.13/1000 50.3 2024

Governance

-0.22 54.4 2024

Fiscal Pressure

2.4% of revenue 4.8 2023

Demographic

Fert: 3.57 | Dep: 7.5% 0.0 2024

Spending (18% weight) - Total general government expenditure as % of GDP. Source: IMF WEO. Range: 10% (lean) to 60% (heavy state). Higher spending = further in the cycle.

Debt (14%) - Gross government debt as % of GDP. Source: IMF WEO. Range: 0-200%. Debt accumulation is how states finance extraction beyond revenue.

Growth (15%) - Average real GDP per capita growth over 5 years. Source: IMF WEO / World Bank. Inverted: low or negative growth signals extraction is suffocating the productive economy.

Migration (10%) - Net migration rate per 1000 population. Source: UN Population Division via World Bank. Inverted: people leaving is the most honest indicator - they vote with their feet.

Governance (18%) - Composite of control of corruption, government effectiveness, rule of law, and regulatory quality. Source: World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators. Inverted: poor governance = extraction without accountability.

Fiscal Pressure (13%) - Interest payments as % of government revenue. Source: World Bank WDI. When interest consumes revenue, the state must tax more, borrow more, or print - the death spiral mechanism.

Demographic (12%) - Composite of fertility rate (below replacement = future worker shortage) and old-age dependency ratio (more retirees per worker = more fiscal pressure). Trajectory signal - affects the cycle in 20-30 years.

Hidden Extraction

Shadow Economy -

Social Contributions -

Self-Employment 60.6%

Spending-Revenue Gap 10.8% GDP

Total Hidden Adjustment +5.5 pts

Official spending data understates real extraction. These proxies estimate what's hidden:

Shadow Economy - % of GDP operating outside formal taxation. Source: IMF WP 18/17 (Medina-Schneider). Brazil at 35% means a third of the economy is escaping formal taxation - but citizens still pay through embedded costs.

Social Contributions - Employer payroll burden as % of government revenue. Hidden from workers' payslips. A 22% figure means significant extraction happens before workers see their salary.

Self-Employment - High rates signal people fleeing formal employment because the extraction burden makes it unprofitable. Informal/self-employed workers still pay consumption taxes.

Spending-Revenue Gap - Difference between what the state spends and what it collects as formal tax. The gap is funded by hidden channels: forced savings (e.g. FGTS in Brazil), state enterprises, parastatal organizations, or money printing.

Resource Revenue

Non-resource 99.4% GDP

Resource revenue is primarily from long-runway minerals. Minimal CCI masking adjustment applied.

CCI Trajectory (2000-2026) +5.1 pts over 26 years

Historical CCI computed from available indicators per year (spending, growth, governance, fiscal pressure, demographics). Not all 7 indicators are available for every year - early data points use fewer indicators. The trend direction matters more than absolute values.

Nearest Countries by CCI Score

#	Country	CCI	Season	Delta	Data
170	Antigua and Barbuda	39.2	Late Summer	+0.0	5/7
168	Chile	39.3	Late Summer	+0.1	7/7
166	Greenland	39.4	Late Summer	+0.2	4/7
167	Morocco	39.4	Late Summer	+0.2	7/7
171	St. Lucia	39	Late Summer	-0.2	7/7